alt Hacker NewsUS Administration announces 34% tariffs on China, 20% on EU
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So many people around the world have been hurt by the terrorist US government. This lessening legitimacy will hopefully provide them some sort of justice.
The blue collar workers are fine with enduring a bit more pain for a few months or even years as this pans out. Specifically if the investment classes (who will be most harmed) suffer more. Long term goals are other countries lower their tariffs with the US, more US manufacturing, a temporarily devalued US dollar to more easily pay down the national debt, and a renegotiation of the terms by which the US provides military protection to other nations. People who already had little if anything to lose not being able to buy cheap foreign goods they weren't going to purchase anyways for a chance to see if this works out, while seeing the tech bros, academics, and investment bankers squirm, rage, and seethe? Though I'll get down voted into oblivion, the unmitigated despair and outrage on display in these comments just make my smile that much wider.
One thing we know for sure Trump will never back down or admit he’s wrong. So how to invest in this 4 year regime to survive or even thrive?
White collar jobs will be destroyed by AI/AGI. But the US workforce consists of a large portion of white collar workers.
To replace the coming destruction of white collar jobs, manufacturing and industry jobs must be brought back, along with new resource collection initiatives (e.g. mining). They will be needed anyhow to build robots, drones, and other machines to compete with China and India, technologically and militarily.
Globalization will be effectively dead, remaining trust in the petrodollar will be destroyed, therefore so will Pax Americana. Expect more wars.
How can companies, importers and ports even implement these tariffs so quickly?
Do these tariffs go into effect immediately?
what would happen to US??? I mean you cant ignore US market right now
so is this enough that factory gonna comeback on US soil??
No tariffs on Russia, interestingly enough.
All actions by this administration point to Trump working in cahoots with Putin, which we were told was "a hoax".
The White House dressing down of Zelensky, and this week Russias investment chief in the US, and just scads of obvious daily reminders that Trump has no bad words for his pal. Odd.
Tariffs on our friends and allies while he speaks of dropping sanctions on Russia and meanwhile levies no tariffs upon goods from Russia, zero. Odd.
for starters, countries will sell to the UK , which will resell to the US at the lowest tarriff rate. Great for the UK, but stupid.
I try to sympathize with trump's deglobalization agenda but it is probably exactly what it seems to be : a colossal stupidity.
I honestly didn't expect that Americans would simply... choose to be poor.
I would bet that most of these tarrifs won't exist in <6 months. This reeks negotiation tactics from Trump.
He's been playing this game for 2 months now with Canada and Mexico, and so far he's loosing. US & business are loosing even more.
Keeping this kind of tarrifs, would be absolutely moronic even by Trump standards. That would be economic and financial suicide for the US.
It’s a good time to enroll in grad school and get an economics phd.
Mistake in headline: tge article says 54% rate on China. 34 looks like a typo.
I like the idea of tariffs but only if followed with income tax cuts.
The Hawk-Dove game is a wise framework to consider. When both are Hawks, both get harmed. When one is a Hawk and the other a Dove, the Dove gets hurt, and the Hawk laughs. I hope both can be Doves, bringing tariffs to zero and making all great again.
There has been a lot of speculation about why this is being done, given that even a young child could understand that a grocery store is not taking advantage of you when you exchange your money for goods. Some say that it doesn't need an explanation, because the President has so much power that caprice and a little bad advice from a cabinet member is all it takes. That is not a complete picture, though, because power in the US is spread out enough that while only the President needs a reason to do something, many others must have a reason to allow it.
Here's one idea for a "why are his supporters allowing this," sort of explanation. In the US, educated professionals hold way more importance than the global average, due to the US's status as an exporter of services. They tend to vote for liberal (in the European sense) policies, whether Republican or Democrat.
If you wanted to destroy liberalism in the United States, you would have to drastically reduce the importance of higher education and professional labor. This can be done by placing very high taxes on the import of goods and base resources, so that young people who would have become engineers have to become miners, loggers and machinists instead. While I do not think this is true (blue-collar workers do not live up to the ultraright's "noble savage" sort of fantasy about their preferences and are actually just like anyone else... but if you're an elite you don't know that firsthand), it sounds plausible that enough of the people who are important for a season might believe it, and support it as a plan to remake American culture, not in their image, but in the image of a fantasy they share.
This works together with the strategic need to decouple from trade with a country before invading them, dramatically increasing the number of opportunities for self-aggrandizement through the threatening of war, high-stakes diplomacy, negotiations over individual prices... which also offer some respite for elected officials who would otherwise take an unending beating in the news over consumer data.
The media has been perpetuating that that tariffs are borne by consumers. This is partially the case, but not entirely: US dairy in Canada is not 3 x the price of Canadian dairy despite the 200% + tariff.
how long before we start seing this reflecting in prices?
You'd think that experts before this time would have considered this already, and rejected it.
Every single move by Trump towards the world economy has always been a bad one. Too bad to be mistakes.
They're not listening to the experts, and it's intentional.
Matches the expectation analysts have had from December 2024 [0]
"In the baseline scenario, we assume that the US will raise its effective WATR against Chinese goods by a total of 20 percentage points over 2025-27. We expect the effective tariff rate on China to rise by 5-10 percentage points in 2025, owing to the imposition of tariffs related to fentanyl smuggling disputes. Mr Trump will further phase in tariffs from late 2025 with a wider range of excuses and policy tools, eventually bringing the effective WATR facing Chinese exports to about 30% by 2027."
[0] - https://www.eiu.com/n/the-impact-of-us-tariffs-on-china-thre...
Vietnam and Israel already agreed to remove tariffs on USA imports. Thailand is opening negotiations today.
It’s simple - remove import duty from USA goods and the USA will remove tariffs. Reciprocal trade.
we've spent the last 50 years basing our currency in foreign manufacturing, seems like a good way to tank the dollar to me
I am not an economist but I see two things 1) usa has a huge debt, 2) this feels a lot like VAT applied on a federal level, without calling it VAT. Ok "VAT on imports". Why not.
Obviously this is being sold as a trading surplus BS, etc, but if you look at EU, the surplus is ridiculously low when you consider goods and services (something like 50B).
I don't think it's the worst idea ever, I just dislike the useless hatred that this guy is spreading around and all the idiots believing him. But hey if he hadn't done it, people would have said he is a socialist :)
Can this be an arbitrage opportunity?
"Reduces trillions of foreign debt, also causes double that in inflation"
Naive question of a foreigner: I see a lot of approval on the youtube comments to Trump's liberation day speech and over at twitter. Now the consensus on HN is diametrically opposed. My question: why do some people think that this is a good idea? Why is there such a huge rift in US society and how do you plan to bridge this gap?
So no soft landing anymore
Wild
The attempts to force a mineral deal on to Ukraine, and also the attempts to get hold of Greenland, start to make sense if you assume that the Trump administration is preparing for a permanent global trade war. Higher costs for mineral imports would hurt the US economy the most.
Russia defeated the UK with Brexit.
Russia defeated the US with Trump's policies.
Where's the internal opposition?
Are we gone flag this one too? Or just all the articles chronicling certain crypto invested tech billionaires pushing in this direction?
cui bono? It is clear that the american taxpayer is not profiting from this but neither seem the billionaires. So who does?
Nasdaq composite is down 5.6% at the time of writing this comment.
I honestly think Trump is doing this just to enrich himself and his friends. Stock market crashes always end up transfering wealth from the poor to the rich.
How did the value added tax (which is paid by all companies including domestic ones) become the same as import duty?
The only way that you can make that tariffs charged to the USA is the level Trump claims (ie. 39% in the EU) is if you include VAT.
All the gigabrains trying to be economists ITT don't understand this is a political move for Trump's base. It is not about what is technically best or the most logical according to the academics. It is an emotional decision more than anything. It stems from the working class in America being given cheap crap from Asia that barely works in exchange for shipping the good jobs overseas to the lowest bidder.
The working class has enough TVs, iPhones, and toys. We want secure housing, good education, healthy food, and an opportunity for promotion in life. Those things can only come with good jobs that are accessible to the whole working class, not just the well educated who make up most of the service economy.
Number one rule of combat is that you need a very good homegrown industrial base. In order to be great country it needs to be combat-ready. If you apply that lens, what Trump is doing will start making sense. He is trying to revert globalisation and free trade in order to make the USA manufacturing superpower again. Not sure whether this will be successful or not, as China already has an order of magnitude advantage in manufacturing.
Trump is going at this with a big ask. I anticipate that these percentage numbers will settle much lower in the end.
Can't we sue the President or something? What if he made it like 200% to really try to fuck the country over?
There's a lot of speculation that the Switch 2 would be atleast hundred dollars less without this nonsense. The Japan exclusive version of the Switch 2 seems to support this, with it's restrictions that insulate Japan, support the notion that English actually isn't needed in Japan (nor any other languages), by releasing a version of the Switch 2 that is far cheaper but only allows you to play games in Japanese.
Walton family, owners of Walmart, run the company by exploiting the labor force and social safety nets like welfare. Walmart is the largest company with the most employees on some sort of welfare. Tax payers are propping up their stock. This allows them to retain more of the profits versus sharing them and removing their employees from the welfare system. None of their listed actions have to do anything with globalization to retain their wealth.
Taxing the wealth and redistributing helps. Saw this in the 1950-1960s with building of new infrastructure to replace the aging or expand the supply to offset the demand. Using the money to pay for new training so lost jobs can be replaced where jobs are needed helps too. Even the simple act of ending starvation in children increases their intellect for the next generation and helps support the future. This method will never be perfect. These are band-aid solutions that have actual results.
Reality is that the inequality is a social problem masquerading as an economic problem. Society has moved to from respecting empathy and humanity to respecting greed and power. People mind set is anchored to, “That person is quite wealthy so they should be smart and some god must love them for it.” Reality is that person exploited a labor force to maximize their wealth. They are not more intelligent nor does some god like them better. Look at how many rich people fell for Elizabeth Holmes’s blood testing scam while a person that actually studies blood understands parts per millions in looking for test markers. A vial of blood or more is needed versus a drop.
Want to fix the system? Start looking at the wealthy with disgust and damnation. Demonize them for being the driving force in economic inequality. Move back to honoring and respecting empathy and humanity. Real intelligent people have empty. It lets them be placed in the shoes of others when they will never can experience it themselves.
I would also caption the wealth gab in the USA as modern day segregation. The world happiness index shows that equalizing the rich and poor creates a better sociality. Respecting the wealth and demonizing the poor is the complete inverse of a better society and maximizes soar.
PS. Why do people think bulling trade partners will be beneficial? Say you are store owner or product producer and you keep trying to bully me to by your products. I will not and go the competition, even with higher costs or deem the product or service not worth it. I already started boycotting USA bourbon manufacturers with their arrogant and bully statements during the Tariff Wars.
Do good, demonize extreme wealth. Irony is so many GOOD Christians even ignore Jesus’s statement on this matter with pretending Matthew 19:24 doesn’t exist.
Just leaving this here from 2023...
"In America, estimates say that Chinese suppliers make up 70-80 percent of Walmart’s merchandise" - https://retailwire.com/discussion/walmarts-open-call-continu...
I am not a specialist; but isn't that the most "green" policy ever ? I mean:
- Tariffs will increase the price of virtually everything -> By law of supply and demand; global trade and production will decrease, leading to less CO2 production
- This effect will be stronger for stuff coming from far away (little for Canda / Mexico; more for EU; huge for China). So companies will have a tendency to rely on local producer (even at a higher price). This again will lower transoceanic shipping. Other countries will probably retaliate so this effect will go both for inbound and outbound shipping. Again; less CO2 production
- More money for the government. There more stuff you buy, the more tariffs you pay, so rich pay more than poors. Which again is what green parties are looking for.
I might be very wrong about this; I am not a Trump supporter in any way - and to be honest I ma not a fan of green parties either - but my initial reaction is that if we look at the conclusion of the policies; the results are looking to align quite well. Of course the surrounding storytelling is extremely different; which puzzles me a bit.
It is not a conspiracy anymore. Problem - Reaction - Solution. Start a war in the middle of Europe and Gaza. Tariffs. Recession - Panic - Digital ID, Social scoring, CDBC, Digital dollar, AI governance, tech feudalism. That's all folks. :)
disastrous
Just like Trump said, he could shoot someone on the street and the bootlickers here would still justify it.
Pushing Vietnam into Chinas arms I see. Oh America.
If there's one upside to Trump, it's that he might turn a lot of left-wingers into passionate free traders. Who would have thought.
Americans would want to have high value-added activities done in the USA, and low value-added activities done abroad. Tariffs are being marketed as trying to achieve that goal.
The five strategic areas/sectors identified as a priority for repatriating activity into the USA are pharmaceuticals, forestry, steel/aluminum, automobiles, and semiconductors.
How is forestry a high value added activity? Are we including furniture manufacturing, or maybe residential housing construction in that sector?
Are we including all of the byproducts of steel and aluminum in the steel/aluminum strategic area? I assume it's not just the raw materials?
Is software included as part of the semiconductor sector?
The bull case for the USA is 1. Reshoring actually happens 2. Other countries actually drop their tariffs/trade barriers 3. A new golden age of Pax Americana/free trade ensues, with Americans exporting their high value manufactured goods worldwide
The bear case for the USA is 1. Republicans get hammered in the midterms 2. Entire world raises tariffs against the USA 3. American factories close en masse 4. USA dollar is devalued and reserve currency status is threatened
Historically, the pattern seems to be: 1. Acquire global empire 2. Promote free trade inside that empire, benefiting high-value added domestic activities and limiting high-value added activities in areas outside the core of the empire 3. Run out of money due to the costs of fighting wars to maintain the empire 4. Military power declines 5. Through one or more wars, another power takes over
Proponents of tariffs argue that Trump is trying to take us back from Step 3 - run out of money to Step 2 - promote free trade. In order to understand this thinking, it's important to understand that your empire's colonies aren't supposed to be allowed to promote their own industries and limit free trade by enacting duties on your own high value exports. To enforce free trade, you then fight wars, you can send gunboats (Opium Wars) or invade (Gulf War). But you can't invade and fight everyone, and rising powers protect their own industries through various measures as they build up.
But power is most powerful when it's not used. The threat of action is much more powerful than the actual action. That's why I'm more than surprised and not too happy that tariffs on a large scale have actually gone forward. Ideally, the threat of tariffs would be used to actually cause other countries to drop their tariffs, and free trade ensues. I'm not sure about historical examples of this working for getting other countries to drop their tariffs. You could certainly try suppress the growth of other countries, I'm not sure how well that works in a global marketplace scenario.
The flip side of that is that if you threaten for too long and never actually do anything you may lose some credibility. But I don't think anyone is arguing that the Americans are gaining credibility by enacting tariffs. It's a big world, and unless Americans have the power to influence their trading partners not to trade with others, then everyone can just trade with each other instead of trading with the Americans.
Since the Nixon admin ended the dollar standard the world has basically been pumping the US economy in so many ways, enabling US imperialism.
1)Dollar standard guarantees countries will absorb US budget costs, since they all have to have dollars they have to accept their money devaluing as the US creates artificial inflation.
2)People buying the US stock market due to no fears of free trade, now why would a Chinese or citizens of certain other countries EVER risk buying US stocks? the trade has become so flimsy if even possible anymore, this is a cold war 2.0 at full scale, 54% tariffs on China are not a joke, that almost kills trade entirely, it wouldn't surprise me if China cut relations at some point now or if it keeps getting worse.
The real reason for this tariffs is a very Thucydides trap moment, ALL these tariffs were primarily targeted to China and countries that could potentially be a "threat" again if China were to "fall" economically, example: Japan, SK, India.
Oligarchs are for it because they want to eventually privatize the stock market and go back into a weird pseudo aristocracy, where they control the most powerful corporations in the world, just like back in the 1800s. (notice how Elon keeps SpaceX, Neuralink and others private?) Since the 90s unlike the rest of the world the stock market has halved in size in the US and the trend will keep going until only a couple individuals control the US economy.
This whole plan however has a flaw, it assume China won't eventually pass the US technology wise, but in the event that it happens, what then? will you not trade with China then? if that happens then you become basically North Korea where you are isolated from the latest technology, as the gap grows you get further and further behind in your standard of living. If that scenario happens it would be catastrophic for the US.