Why is this hard? Calculate the expected value of each option, do a risk analysis, apply risk factor (based on your own tolerance), biggest number wins.
Risk analysis depends highly on your views of the world? "Are we in/heading towards a recession?""will the stock market continue its explosive growth"? "Do I as a person favor stability or prefer to take a bit of risk?"
All these will influence your EV.
This comment has strong draw the rest of the owl vibes. (and the risk analysis & factor can cover a multitude of sins).