I am of a belief that upcoming winter will look more like normalization than collapse.

The reason is hype deflation and technical stagnation don't have to arrive together. Once people stop promising AGI by Christmas and clamp down on infinite growth + infinite GPU spend, things will start to look more normal.

At this point, it feels more like the financing story was the shaky part not the tech or the workflows. LLMs’ve changed workflows in a way that’s very hard to unwind now.