I agree with everything you wrote, the technology is unbelievable and 6 years ago, maybe even 3.1 years would have been considered magic.
A steel man argument for why winter might be coming is all the dumb stuff companies are pushing AI for. On one hand (and I believe this) we argue it’s the most consequential technology in generations. On the other, everybody is using it for nonsense like helping you write an email that makes you sound like an empty suit, or providing a summary you didn’t ask for.
There’s still a ton of product work to cross whatever that valleys called between concept and product, and if that doesn’t happen, money is going to start disappearing. The valuation isn’t justified by the dumb stuff we do with it, it needs PMF.
> I agree with everything you wrote, the technology is unbelievable and 6 years ago, maybe even 3.1 years would have been considered magic.
People said the same thing about ELIZA in 1967.
> maybe even 3.1 years would have been considered magic
I vividly remember sitting there for literally hours talking to a computer on launch day, it was a very short night. This feeling of living in the future has not left me since, it's got quieter, but it's still there. It's still magic after those three years, perhaps even more so. It wasn't supposed to work this well for decades! and yet.