While both are unlikely, if I have to choose one I would bet on AGI than AI winter in the next five years.

AI just got better and better. People thought it couldn't solve math problems without some human formalizes them first. Then it did. People thought it couldn't generate legible text. Then it did.

All while people swore it had reached a "plateau," "architecture ceiling," "inherent limit," or whatever synonym of the goalpost.