This blog post is full of bizarre statements and the author seems almost entirely ignorant of the history or present of AI. I think it's fair to argue there may be an AI bubble that will burst, but this blog post is plainly wrong in many ways.

Here's a few clarifications (sorry this is so long...):

"I should explain for anyone who hasn't heard that term [AI winter]... there was much hope, as there is now, but ultimately the technology stagnated. "

The term AI winter typically refers to a period of reduced funding for AI research/development, not the technology stagnating (the technology failing to deliver on expectations was the cause of the AI winter, not the definition of AI winter).

"[When GPT3 came out, pre-ChatGPT] People were saying that this meant that the AI winter was over, and a new era was beginning."

People tend to agree there were two AI winters already, one having to do with symbolic AI disappointments/general lack of progress (70s), and the latter related to expert systems (late 80s). That AI winter has long been over. The Deep Learning revolution started in ~2012, and by 2020 (GPT 3) huge amount of talent and money were already going into AI for years. This trend just accelerated with ChatGPT.

"[After symbolic AI] So then came transformers. Seemingly capable of true AI, or, at least, scaling to being good enough to be called true AI, with astonishing capabilities ... the huge research breakthrough was figuring out that, by starting with essentially random coefficients (weights and biases) in the linear algebra, and during training back-propagating errors, these weights and biases could eventually converge on something that worked."

Transformers came about in 2017. The first wave of excitement about neural nets and backpropagation goes all the way back to the late 80s/early 90s, and AI (computer vision, NLP, to a lesser extent robotics) were already heavily ML-based by the 2000s, just not neural-net based (this changed in roughly 2012).

"All transformers have a fundamental limitation, which can not be eliminated by scaling to larger models, more training data or better fine-tuning ... This is the root of the hallucination problem in transformers, and is unsolveable because hallucinating is all that transformers can do."

The 'highest number' token is not necessarily chosen, this depends on the decoding algorithm. That aside, 'the next token will be generated to match that bad choice' makes it sound like once you generate one 'wrong' token the rest of the output is also wrong. A token is a few characters, and need not 'poison' the rest of the output.

That aside, there are plenty of ways to 'recover' from starting to go down the wrong route. A key aspect of why reasoning in LLMs works well is that it typically incorporates backtracking - going earlier in the reasoning to verify details or whatnot. You can do uncertainty estimation in the decoding algorithm, use a secondary model, plenty of things (here is a detailed survey https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.05232 , one of several that is easy to find).

"The technology won't disappear – existing models, particularly in the open source domain, will still be available, and will still be used, but expect a few 'killer app' use cases to remain, with the rest falling away."

A quick google search shows ChatGPT currently has 800 million weekly active users who are using it for all sorts of things. AI-assisted programming is certainly here to stay, and there are plenty of other industries in which AI will be part of the workflow (helping do research, take notes, summarize, build presentations, etc.)

I think discussion is good, but it's disappointing to see stuff with this level of accuracy being on front page of HN.