Technologically, I believe that you're right. On the other hands, the previous AI winters happened despite novel, useful technologies, some of which proved extremely useful and actually changed the world of software. They happened because of overhype, then investor moving on to the next opportunity.

Here, the investors are investing in LLMs. Not in AlphaFold, AlphaGo, neurosymbolic, focus learning, etc. If (when) LLMs prove insufficient to the insane level of hype and if (when) experience shows that there is only so much money that you can make with LLMs, it's possible that the money will move on to other types of AI, but there are chances that it will actually go to something entirely different, perhaps quantum, leaving AI in winter.