Agreed. I am coming to suspect that there are approximately 2 positions on this subject: there are people who have previously weathered an AI winter and can therefore easily see the writing on the wall, and there are people who maybe don't quite understand the phenomenon being described by the term "AI winter".

It's not about how good or useful or potentially lucrative the technology is. Every previous catalyst for an AI winter has eventually become pervasive, changed the world, and made some people a lot of money. Every single one. And I do mean pervasive. If you could poof just one of them out of existence, my cell phone would become noticeably less useful.

What it's really about is how hype cycles interact with funding for basic research.