> the chance that Intel gets a boat load of profit out of it is very small

Why? TSMC seems to be doing ok. It’s worked with RAM and SSD suppliers the same way and they seem to be doing ok too. So does Foxconn. Apple has been known to subsidise leading edge nodes in exchange for priority or temporary exclusivity, and is absolutely ruthless, but it does not prevent its partners from being successful.

> And historically when fabs have been separated from a business, it's always been in a way to shed a capital intensive albatross

That is true. But there are other factors that might be worth considering. First, Apple hates being dependent on a single supplier (which is a single point of failure). Then, hedging risks related to the security situation in Taiwan makes sense. Whether it means subsidising a new TSMC plant in the West or subsidising a new Intel plant might not be that huge a difference. Finally, it might apply some gentle and friendly pressure on TSMC by threatening to shift some production to a competitor.

Whether all this makes sense or not depends on quantitative and qualitative analysis based on data we don’t really have.