I think AI clouds the real issues around Junior hiring. Defective companies.
Let's say you hire your great new engineer. Ok, great! Now their value is going to escalate RAPIDLY over the next 2-3 years. And by rapidly, it could be 50-100%. Because someone else will pay that to NOT train a person fresh out of college!
What company hands out raises aggressively enough to stay ahead of that truth? None of them, maybe a MANGA or some other thing. But most don't.
So, managers figure out fresh out of college == training employees for other people, so why bother? The company may not even break even!
That is the REAL catch 22. Not AI. It is how the value of people changes early in their career.
I actually got a major raise after 6m, and then another major raise 1y into my career, because my boss recognized my value.
Sadly this is not as common as it should be - but I've also mentored folks at FAANGs who got promoted after 1y at the new-hire level because they were so clearly excelling. The first promotion is usually not very hard to attain if you're in the top quartile.