I think this is why I get much more utility out of LLMs with writing code. Code can fail if the syntax is wrong; small perturbations in the text (e.g. add a newline instead of a semicolon) can lead to significant increases in the cost function.

Of course, once an LLM is asked to create a bespoke software project for some complex system, this predictability goes away, the trajectory of the tokens succumbs to the intrinsic chaos of code over multi-block length scales, and the result feels more arbitrary and unsatisfying.

I also think this is why the biggest evangelists for LLMs are programmers, while creative writers and journalists are much more dismissive. With human language, the length scale over which tokens can be predicted is much shorter. Even the "laws" of grammar can be twisted or ignored entirely. A writer picks a metaphor because of their individual reading/life experience, not because its the most probable or popular metaphor. This is why LLM writing is so tedious, anodyne, sycophantic, and boring. It sounds like marketing copy because the attention model and RL-HF encourage it.