Why was the July megaquake, an 8.8 magnitude, a dumb prophecy, but this "strong quake" at a magnitude of 7.6 is a smart prophecy?
Strange question.
The July megaquake prophecy scare was dumb because it originated in a work of fiction, not intended to be taken seriously by its author and not based on any scientific evidence. If the "prophecy" had come true, it'd be by luck alone. fwiw, I'd say it didn't come true; the 8.8 magnitude earthquake was near Kamchatka and didn't actually damage Japan, though a tsunami seemed plausible enough that there was a precautionary evacuation.
This "strong quake" is a thing that happened, not a "smart prophecy" [1]. Talk of aftershocks is not a prophecy either; it's a common-sense prediction consistent with observations from many previous earthquakes.
[1] smart prophecy is an oxymoron. A prediction is either based on scientific evidence (not a prophecy) or a (dumb) prophecy.
This isn’t something that I personally wish to debate, but I’ll leave link to the wikipedia page for the July 2025 prophecy [1] for anyone who may not know what we are talking about.
And also point out that last night’s earthquake in Northern Japan was not a “prophecy”. Just a regular, large earthquake - which do occur pretty frequently in Japan. And I say "large" not just because of the magnitude, but because parts of Aomori experienced 6+ shaking on the shindo scale [2] which is categorized as "brutal" [3].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/July_2025_Japan_megaquake_prop...
[2] https://www.data.jma.go.jp/multi/quake/quake_detail.html?eve...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Meteorological_Agency_se...