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scottlambyesterday at 10:01 PM1 replyview on HN

Strange question.

The July megaquake prophecy scare was dumb because it originated in a work of fiction, not intended to be taken seriously by its author and not based on any scientific evidence. If the "prophecy" had come true, it'd be by luck alone. fwiw, I'd say it didn't come true; the 8.8 magnitude earthquake was near Kamchatka and didn't actually damage Japan, though a tsunami seemed plausible enough that there was a precautionary evacuation.

This "strong quake" is a thing that happened, not a "smart prophecy" [1]. Talk of aftershocks is not a prophecy either; it's a common-sense prediction consistent with observations from many previous earthquakes.

[1] smart prophecy is an oxymoron. A prediction is either based on scientific evidence (not a prophecy) or a (dumb) prophecy.


Replies

kulahanyesterday at 10:13 PM

You are certainly reading something into my question that isn't there. I'm genuinely ignorant. I thought you were saying that predictions of a strong aftershock following an M8.8 were dumb, but the same thing following an M7.6 were smart. Is that not the case?

Again, sorry if this seemed antagonistic or something, I really am just unsure of what you were saying.

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