Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

This part of the story stood out for me:

>More emails arrived in my inbox.

>“When will you update the article?” one was titled. The email had no text content, only an image — a screenshot of my initial interaction with Daniel.

>Except it did not show my actual response to Daniel, but a fabricated message that I had not written.

>“Hi Daniel, Thank you for noticing, I checked with the IDF Spokesperson and it was indeed intercepted. I sent it now for editing, it will be fixed shortly,” I supposedly wrote. (To be clear, I wrote no such thing.)

this seems to be a main issue.

Would it help journalists if emails were quotable by default and the first party email providers could verify specific quotations? This way this class of fraud, market manipulation, and fake news would disappear.

I don't see why people wouldn't leave their responses as quotable when responding to journalists, for example, and journalists could also set their responses as quotable by default.

What do you think, could this help this issue?

If there’s something that screams late-stage capitalism any louder, I don’t want it…

Man the moral degradation is off the charts. Prediction markets are easily the worst things to grace the internet by far and its not even close.

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So, just to point it out: people don't get violent and criminal magically because they made a bet. They get violent and criminal to backstop a bet they can't cover. The story here isn't that horrible criminals are using Polymarket. It's that Polymarket bettors are overleveraged, and at the margin some of them turn to crime to avoid losing their shirts.

We've all been looking around for the trigger for the market-crash-we-all-know-is-coming. Seems like "too much betting on a stupid war of choice" is just dumb enough to fit the timeline we've been trapped in. Very on-brand.

In other news: I'm almost entirely out of volatiles in my own portfolio right now. Cash and bonds until this pops. Frankly the chances are that today will be the day[1] are about as high as they've ever been.

[1] Trump, sigh, basically went on camera and capitulated, telling the world that there is no plan, the US doesn't have the capability to ensure trade through Hormuz and that Iran will deny access until Iran decides otherwise. Markets don't like uncertainty, but they really, really hate losing wars.

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The level of censorship in Israel right now is off the charts: https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/

I suspect the gambler probably would have won on the basis of what happened but lost on the basis of what the times reported.

Per HN policy, stop editorializing the headlines.

Here's the actual headline:

> Gamblers trying to win a bet on Polymarket are vowing to kill me if I don’t rewrite an Iran missile story

As I read through the article it seemed more and more as I read like this issue has actually very little to do with gambling or the gamblers on polymarket.

The issue at hand is that Israel has made itself one of the most hated countries in its region and in the world.

In my opinion, they have largely made their own bed due to their own actions against their neighbors.

Can I really get mad if someone on the internet is upset with me as an American for my country’s sins? They may send me empty death threats but my country bombed an elementary school just this year, as a part of an illegal unauthorized war that my country’s leaders can’t even explain coherently.

Downvote if you are suited up to fight AIPAC’s war!

Literal yawn

How about the new supreme leader in Iran is gay? I’d have made millions on a $1 bet on that one! But now the secret is out and no payday

this was kind of inevitable once prediction markets got large enough. when traders have millions in open positions on geopolitical events, they have direct financial incentive to suppress or promote specific narratives. same dynamic as short sellers attacking companies, but applied to real-world events instead of stocks. the whole prediction market thesis assumes information flows freely into prices — breaks down when participants start trying to influence the information itself

Why is everyone assuming at face value that the threats are actually coming from gamblers, and not from the Israeli government trying to downplay the domestic impact of the war?

I note the photo of the author wearing a “PRESS” vest. I’m sure he won’t be shot or blown up by the IDF like so many non-Israeli journalists.

An additional complication is that both Iran and Israel are engaging in heavy censorship of news articles, obstensively to prevent the opposing side from getting intelligence/feedback on their missile strikes/other activities, but it is also definitely to control the narrative:

https://www.972mag.com/israel-media-censorship-iran-war/

This could definitely affect key polymarket bets in the near term. I expect over the long term the truth will come out, but in the near term, it could be obscured.

Many of the comments in this discussion remind me of that Rothchild analysis in the second half of the 1800s when France had problems with a revolution.

> A friend asked Baron Rothschild what he was doing in response to Paris Commune:

> “Why,” replied the famous banker musingly, “French government bonds are selling at sixty-five. I bought five millions yesterday.”

> “What!” exclaimed the friend. “Bought bonds? Why, France is without a government, and the sewers of Paris are running red with blood!”

> “Yes, it is deplorable,” remarked the baron, “but if the sewers of Paris were not running red with blood, I could not buy bonds at this price. France will survive this terrible calamity, as she survived the Revolution, and the seven coalitions against her of all the powers of Europe. Her credit will again be the highest of any nation, and her bonds will sell again above par.”

People who oppose gambling tend to see this as a foreign capitalist selfishly making money off of the dire situation of the French people. People who do not oppose gambling see it as financial support of the French in their times of trouble when others have abandoned them.