I mean the biggest risk is Chinese CXML benefits and capturing markets that others are leaving hanging and then being able to compete and push out the others when costs start to normalize.
As for 20-25% growth not being enough, I think it's not that far off, if we assume data center build out plans hit a wall and slow down significantly, and the AI heat starts to cool off.
I don't think 20-25% may be enough in the short term but if the AI build out stops within this year, we have a massive oversupply instead of a under supply.
Is there any indication research is being focused on reducing menory footprint of inference for frontier class models? Is the low hanging fruit already gone there?
Looking at the history of the memory industry the biggest risk is that a firm would over produce and go bankrupt. Maybe this time is different but so far no memory chip maker has gone under because their competition increased capacity.