> * The curve of AI improvement will continue at the current pace

Frontier AI is already good enough to be very useful for engineering. It's too costly for many places where it could be useful today.

The cost for the same quality of output is going to drop at least 10x over the next 18-24 months.

And likely again in the following 18-24 months.

At the same time, the cost per watt is going to down ~25%, and at the same time speed will increase (also valuable since time is money).