I think Trump is severely misreading his position in the world. It's not April 2025 anymore. There will be consequences for everyone, but I am not sure his own party will support him through this in an election year. Especially now as the last time he publicly stated he backed down because if rising bond yields, which is actually happening already before any trade war. Is he really going to start another one, already in deep trouble because of the mess he made in Iran.
I think he will cave pretty quickly and Canada knows it.
In general any deal with the other party is introducing last minute changes is one to walk away from.
And specifically any deal made with the U.S under Trump has no credibility, just ask Iran.
Importantly Canada has committed to matching every American tariff dollar for dollar, which the US already considers unfathomable. Greer repeatedly cites that only Canada and China retaliated, which is such a weird criticism. Is he intending to compliment us?
So expect Trump to start spiralling. Also expect lots of astroturfing about how desperate Canada is and that it has no choice (one of those hilarious slop purveyors appeared below).
Canada should begin the process of withdrawing from USMCA, and the truth is that NAFTA cum USMCA has worsened Canada's lot over the past four decades compared to peers. Trade agreements with the US are worthless, and even negotiating with that Epstein pedo cabal of grifters is useless. It sounds like the Canadian team were foolishly going to give in to many things (any concession of any form always comes back to hurt you), but at the last minute Howard "Epstein Island" Nutlick swooped in and tried to extract even more, undoing it all. Which...thank you Nutlick, you disgusting greaseball. You did us a great favour.
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Canada CAN survive without its historical trade volume with the US. It CANNOT survive with its current economy, debt load and environmental policies intact. Whichever way this goes, the US comes out ahead.
Why is the exposure is asymmetric? ~70% of Canadian exports go to the US - the reverse dependency isn't close to symmetric. Unemployment, business investment, and the CAD are all deteriorating far more deeply and rapidly than any impact on the USA. Canadians are carrying the highest household debt burden in the country's history now; and its natural resources can't plug the gap unless Canada is willing to kill net zero and other environmental rules.
These new tariffs are actually a retention play. Canadian businesses have been relocating to the US since the trade war started, and the countervailing tariffs are aimed at making that move less attractive. But the move is undermined by its target. Canada's household debt and wealth destruction are shrinking the value of the Canadian market itself, so the incentive to stay keeps eroding regardless of what the tariffs do.
The situation is so lopsided one has to assume this is a coordinated bid by certain forces in Canada and the US to shatter the Liberal party and its coalition with New Dems and Greens. Ask yourself how bad it has to get for Canadians before they lower their elbows and vote differently?
That is where this is headed.
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Ya know, there's not a damned thing I can do about any of this, other than TRY to get citizenship elsewhere and leave this shithole.
And fascism is taking hold lots of other places as well. Canada's a laugh, with Alberta seperatism. And they also had trump trucker caravans.
EU? They're boiling in their own juices with the fact they now need air conditioning due to climate devastation... And many countries make it illegal without health reasons.
Japan and SK are both doing very poorly. China has some of the harshest immigration.
South America is still being fucked with by the CIA and destabilization idiocy.
I understand the tune-out check-out hippie response. There's fuck-all I can do, other than watch.
Don’t forget, it’s the longest land border in the world, largely remote. Feels like it would be easy to work around with minimal effort.
Time for Canada to cozy up closer to China, that'll end well for them I'm sure.
Is YC News an American website? It seems like all the comments are advising against American interests with regards to tariffs.
"50% of High Income Canadians Have Fled to the US" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNSi9mJ8xRE
YES! YES!
Elbows up, finally!
This is will be painful. But it is what we need.
It is more than time for Canada to learn the lesson that Navajos, Comanches, Apache and Cherokees learned to late: Americans lie, cheat, betray and steal. We shouldn't be cozy with them.