Anthropic S-1

I'm surprised at people suggesting that the model layer can't be the moat. Having great models that are smart requires talent, culture and good judgement. Sure it can be commoditised to an extent but could it not be that Anthropic will always stay in the lead?

They only have to be marginally better and there will be tonnes of people who will pay a lot of money to have that marginal intelligence.

I think a company like Moonshot or Z.AI could have sabotaged this behind repair by doing a 10-20B IPO before Anthropic.

That could have popped the AI bubble right there.

Is becoming a public company going to help or harm their mission of delivering safe AI?

Super shares yet again. Pass.

Plus they get to dilute as value rises lol.

'AI' still fails the alignment grannybench.

I seems to me the main risk long-term is that it's not clear where the moat is.

People will pay a premium if there is marginal value in extra intelligence. And Anthropic is able to retain their lead and provide that extra intelligence.

Both of these assumptions seem highly suspect to me. Most businesses don't exclusively hire PHD-level employees for most tasks because a competent slightly less intelligent/knowledgable person can do the job just fine for significantly less.

Then there is the question of if they're able to retain their lead, and again, this seems questionable. Both OpenAI and Google are competing at the frontier, and Chinese labs are still in the race. Things are changing so fast who knows where we'll be in 5-10 years.

My best guess is that longer-term models will be commoditised and it will be how companies offer products and services around their models that gives them their margins. I wouldn't bet on Anthropic's ability to do this. Meta, OpenAI and Google are much better placed to win here imo.

The other place there may be margin is in niche research domains like drug-discovery. Any slight lead in these sectors could give them a lot of pricing power.

I think the reason to invest in this is as a hedge. AI basically competes against everything and arguably for this reason it's risky to not own a basket of AI stocks.

> Second, AI can be a powerful lever for economic growth. As a general purpose technology, it has the potential to raise productivity across every sector of the economy. Productivity growth in advanced economies has stagnated in recent decades, partly for structural reasons and partly because new ideas seem to be harder to find. AI could reverse this trend.

Bloody hell!!!! Who comes up with such crap, seriously?

Good for you if you have Anthropic shares! I have no clue how they keep their employees around once the 6 month lockup period ends. They all going to be multi-millionaires, either retire or leave to start something on their own.

So now buy or sell?

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A sad day for mankind.

This S-1 is a FRAUD because it PURPOSEFULLY excludes the potential market destroying-power of free/open-weight Chinese models as a risk factor.

That's literally the #1 risk factor. They ignore it.

This is a FRAUD document and it means we need to SHORT this overblown company.

Lets burn it down to the ground!