There's a lot of people, so a lot of false positives is certainly true. The question is percentage.
There's probably better ways to do things but I don't think we should just give up before we begin. Clearly spammers are abusing the systems at play and they're hard to track. So if a bunch of hay comes with your shipment of needles, it is better than getting no needles.
Though that isn't to say we shouldn't try to reduce the hay and that there aren't a lot of avenues that this can be done.