I think about that every time I hear someone saying LLMs will make programmers unemployable. There’s no doubt that the work will change but I think a lot of the premise is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of the problem: business systems are just more complex than people like to think so you’re basically repeating https://xkcd.com/793/ where people higher on the org chart think the problem is just cranking out syntax because they “know” how it should work.

I think we’ve had at least 4 generations of that idea that reducing coding time will be a game-changer: the COBOL/SQL era of English-like languages promising that business people could write or at least read the code directly, 4GLs in the 80s and 90s offering an updated take on that idea, the massive push for outsourcing in the 90s and 2000s cutting the hourly cost down, and now LLMs in the form being pushed by Gartner/McKinsey/etc. In each case there have been some real wins but far less than proponents hoped because the hard problem was deciding what it really needed to do, not hammering out syntax.

There’s also a kind of Jevons paradox at work because even now we still have way more demand than capacity, so any productivity wins are cancelled out. At some point that should plateau but I’m not betting on it being soon.