alt Hacker NewsHumans sure love this story. A dozen Founding Fathers created the United States. A dozen physicists invented quantum mechanics. A dozen innovators caused the Industrial Revolution. It's always wrong.
Ask any of those dozen people where they got their ideas and (if they're honest) they'll each have another dozen people to name, and so on. Ask them who made minor contributions and suggestions and they'll again have dozens of people to name. Science is an ever-expanding body of work that always builds on its past successes and it's the height of naivete to reduce humanity's effort in a subject down to its few most visible people. It makes for good stories and trivia questions, but it's extremely far from the actual truth.
And even if it were true: how could you possibly identify those dozen people beforehand? It'd be like walking into a publishing house and proclaiming that everyone there is stupid because they waste all this money on books that don't end up best-sellers. Why don't they just only invest in the future best-sellers? Are they stupid?
I partly agree. A conceptual breakthrough always rests on a foundation to which many contributed. All of whom, in some sense, contributed. But my reading of history says that the reconceptualization that leads to intellectual breakthroughs themselves usually only involve small numbers of people.
If you've read The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, what I'm saying is that new paradigms are usually created by very small numbers of people. But they have both a foundation and their further success from the contributions of many.
I'm very much not offering an opinion on a great man theory of history in fields outside of science. Your example of the American Revolution is entirely off topic.
I'm also very much not saying that who will contribute what is in any way predictable. At best, the necessary collision of circumstances to make the breakthrough possible is chaotic, and therefore cannot be predicted. Nor did anyone else. The original point a few posts up was that, even if though there might be a haystack of clearly wasted effort, there may still be a needle powerful enough to make up for the rest.