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btilly10/12/20240 repliesview on HN

Experts who felt certain about their ideas did worse than chance, and worse than simplistic models.

Experts who quantified uncertainty and tried multiple theories did better than both chance or simplistic models.

Sadly, the experts who felt certain presented themselves with confidence and got higher paying jobs.

Normal people were not in the data set reported. He's since done more research on good predictions. You can read Superforecasting by the same author for more.