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throwaway888889last Thursday at 10:02 AM3 repliesview on HN

How can you get past that orbit if there is all this junk destroying your rockets????


Replies

Retriclast Thursday at 10:21 AM

Ideally a satellite is in a given orbit for years. If junk is destroying it in weeks or even months you’ve got a massive issue.

However a rocket is spending in a seconds in that same orbit. Thus a rocket passing through may only have say 1:10,000 odds of a collision on its way to mars while satellites are getting shredded.

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the8472last Thursday at 11:26 AM

integrate risk over time. if you have a high target orbit outside the "kessler belt" then you don't spend much time going through it. though this requires a fairly direct orbital insertion. slow orbit raising would have a higher risk, but even that would still be lower than for any satellite intended to operate for years and decades in an affected orbit.

Cthulhu_last Thursday at 11:13 AM

It really depends on how much junk actually is there and in what orbits; especially at 500 km up, space is big. The surface area of the earth is 510.100.000 square kilometers, at 500 kilometers the 'surface area' is a multiple of that (I can't math), surely there's enough gaps or lower-density areas at that height even if there was a catastrophic Kessler Syndrome event.

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