Not to be too dismissive, but the title text of this xkcd [0] seems relevant. No matter how nice the explanation is, the fact that the conclusion is wrong suggests that the reasoning has a flaw. I took a stab at what I think that flaw is when I responded to your rebuttal [1].

[0] https://xkcd.com/2217/

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42372285