alt Hacker News> The clips on the Sora site today would have been utterly astonishing ten years ago.
Yeah, and Apollo 11 would have been utterly astonishing a decade before it occurred. And, yet, if you tried to project out from it to what further frontiers manned spaceflight would reach in the following decades, you’d…probably grossly overestimate what actually occurred.
> Long term progress can be surprising.
Sure, it can be surprising for optimists as well as naysayers; as a good rule of thumb, every curve that looks exponential in an early phase ends up being at best logistic.
In the long run we are all dead. Saying that technology will be better in the future is almost eye-roll worthy. The real task is predicting what future technology will be, and when it will arrive.
Ask anyone with a chronic illness about the future and they'll tell you we're about 5 years off a cure. They've been saying that for decades. Who knows where the future advancements will be.