Dear rhubarbtree,
I'm very sorry to admit it but I'm too lazy to read the entire discussion in this thread. Could you please tell me, a mere mortal, at which point the humanity should start worrying about the security of asymmetric encryption in the brave new world of quantum computing?
Funny turn of phrase, but you probably need 20 million physical qubits (or at least you did a few years ago, this number may have dropped somewhat) to do anything significant. I don't think we can be confident we'll get there any time soon.