"First, it assumes that scaling models automatically leads to something dangerous"

The regulation doesn't exactly make this assumption. Not only are large models stifled, the ability to serve models via API to many users, and the ability to have many researchers working in parallel on upgrading the model is also stifled. It wholesale stifles AI progress for the targeted nations.

This is an appropriate restriction on what will likely be a core part of military technology in the coming decade (eg drone piloting).

Look, if Russia didn't invade Ukraine and China didn't keep saying they wanted to invade Taiwan, I wouldn't have any issues with sending them millions of Blackwell chips. But that's not the world we live in. Unfortunately, this is the foreign policy reality that exists outside of the tech bubble we live in. If China ever wants to drop their ambitions over Taiwan then the export restrictions should be dropped, but not a moment sooner.