logoalt Hacker News

ricardobeat01/21/20251 replyview on HN

Is it though? Instinctively the initial choice and the last remaining door have the same odds of 1/100.


Replies

datruth2901/21/2025

On the initial choice yes. But on the second choice, that other door is a single door that is the sum of the odds of the other 99 doors. So you're second choice would be to keep the door you initially chose (1/100) or select the other door (99/100).

Remember, the host always knows which is the correct door, and if you selected incorrectly on the initial choice they will ALWAYS select the correct door for the second choice.

show 1 reply