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lm2846901/21/20251 replyview on HN

Until they track absolutely everything including each trial subject microbiome, hormone profile, &co over time, I still feel it just won't cut it.

Plus it doesn't even matter what is true for the statistical average, given the infinite amount of variables and outcomes one glass of wine might be statistically beneficial but absolutely terrible for your own health because you have one specific gene combination or one specific microbiome mix. Which means you'd have to go through the same regimen of analysing and tracking all the parameters for yourself for it to be applicable


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tomrod01/21/2025

Actually, this is why stats exists in the first place. Larger samples (including metastudies) are so powerful -- you can measure and predict causal impact of test factors even if you can't control for unobservables. The goal is to minimize type 1 and type 2 error. So long as those unobservables are not driving a selection bias, you get wonderful things like the central limit theorem coming to the rescue.

No one can monitor or measure everything, whether philosophically (Heisenberg uncertainty principle) or prosaically (cost). But if something is true, we can often probe it enough to get at least a low-res idea of the nature of it. This moves us light years ahead of primarily using our personal experience, gut, and vibe to establish epistemologically sound assertions.

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