alt Hacker Newstl;dr: I agree.
We don't teach slide rules and log tables in school anymore. Calculators and computers have created a huge metacognitive laziness for me, and I teach calculus and have a PhD in statistics. I barely remember the unit circle except for multiples of pi/4 radians. I can do it in multiples of pi/6 but I'm slower.
But guess what? I don't think I'm a worse mathematician because I don't remember these things reflexively. I might be a little slower getting the answer to a trivial problem, but I can still find a solution to a complex problem. I look up integral forms in my pocket book of integrals or on Wolfram Alpha, because even if I could derive the answer myself I don't think I'd be right 100% of the time. So metacognitive laziness has set in for me already.
But I think as long as we can figure out how to stop metacognitive laziness before it turns into full-fledged brain-rot, then we'll be okay. We'll survive as long as we can still teach students how to think critically, and figure out how to let AI assist us rather than turn us into the humans on the ship from Wall-E. I'm a little worried that we'll make some short term mistakes (like not adapting our cirriculum fast enough), but it will work out.
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I am not sure calculators have hurt us much on the high end of mathematical ability.
But man I cringe when I see 18 year old students reach for a calculator to multiply something by .1.
I think you're right at the edge of explaining why this "laziness" is a good thing. Everything that we have made is built on what we had before, and abstracts away what we had before. 99% of us don't remember how to make even the simplest Assembly program, and yet we unleash billions of instructions per second on the world.
Even outside of math and computers, when was the last time you primed a well pump or filled an oil lamp? All of these tasks have been abstracted away, freeing us to focus on ever-more-specialized pursuits. Those that are useful will too be abstracted away, and for the better.