alt Hacker NewsMy husband and me made a stock market analysis thing that gets it right about 55% of the time, so better than a coin toss. The problem is that it keeps making unethical suggestions, so we're not using it to trade stock. Does anyone have any idea what we can do with that?
Replies
bongodongobob • 01/22/2025
You can literally flip coins and get better than 50% success in a bull market. Just buy index funds and spend your time on something that isn't trying to beat entropy. You won't be able to.
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Etheryte • 01/22/2025
Have you backtested this in times when markets were not constantly green? Nearly any strategy is good in the good times.
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bobbygoodlatte • 01/22/2025
I'm curious what sort of unethical suggestions it's coming up with haha
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febed • 01/22/2025
What data do you analyze?
Suggestion: calculate the out-of-sample Sharpe ratio[0] of the suggestions over a reasonable period to gauge how good the model would actually perform in terms of return compared to risks. It is better than vanilla accuracy or related metrics. Source: I'm a financial economist.
[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sharpe_ratio