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rhubarbtree01/22/20253 repliesview on HN

The problem is, they are hugely incentivised to hype to raise funding. It’s not whether they are “wrong”, it’s whether they are being realistic.

The argument presented in the quote there is: “everyone in AI foundation companies are putting money into AI, therefore we must be near AGI.”

The best evaluation of progress is to use the tools we have. It doesn’t look like we are close to AGI. It looks like amazing NLP with an enormous amount of human labelling.


Replies

LeftHandPath01/22/2025

Absolutely. Look at how Sam Altman speaks.

If you've taken a couple of lectures about AI, you've probably been taught not to anthropomorphize your own algorithms, especially given how the masses think of AI (in terms of Skynet, Cortana, "Her", Ex Machina, etc). It encourages people to mistake the capabilities of the models and ascribe to them all of the traits of AI they've seen in TV and movies.

Sam has ignored that advice, and exploited the hype that can be generated by doing so. He even tried to mimic the product in "Her", down to the voice [0]. The old board said his "outright lying" made it impossible to trust him [1]. That behavior raises eyebrows, even if he's got a legitimate product.

[0]: https://www.wired.com/story/openai-gpt-4o-chatgpt-artificial...

[1]: https://www.theverge.com/2024/5/28/24166713/openai-helen-ton...

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og_kalu01/23/2025

>The problem is, they are hugely incentivised to hype to raise funding.

Hype is extremely normal. Everyone with a business gets the chance to hype for the purpose of funding. That alone isn't going to get several of the biggest tech giants in the world to pour billions.

Satya just said, "he has his 80 billion ready". Is Microsoft an "AI foundation company" ? Is Google ? Is Meta ?

The point is the old saying - "Put your money where your mouth is". People can say all sorts of things but what they choose to spend their money on says a whole lot.

And I'm not saying this means the investment is guaranteed to be worth it.

sandspar01/23/2025

The newest US president announced this within the 48 hours of assuming office. Hype alone couldn't set such a big wheel in motion.

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