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kortilla01/22/20251 replyview on HN

Right, but if 55% is avg over the last few years, “buy stock” is going to be correct more than not.

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-Yo-Yo.pdf


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Etheryte01/22/2025

I think this is a good highlight of why context and reality checks are incredibly important when doing work like this. At first glance, it might look like 55% is a really good result, but in the previous year, a flat buy every day strategy would've been right 56.7% of the time.

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