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sanderjd01/22/20250 repliesview on HN

Yeah, in my mind, the distinction worth making is where the inflection point from exponential growth to plateau in the s-curve of usefulness is. Have we already hit it? Are we going to hit it soon? Is it far in the future? Or is it exponential from here straight to "the singularity"?

Hard to predict!

If we've already hit it, this has already been a very short period of time during which we've seen incredibly valuable new technology commercialized, and that's nothing to sneeze at, and fortunes have and will be rightly made from it.

If it's in the near future, then a lot of people might be over-investing in the promise of future growth that won't materialize to the extent they hoped. Some people will lose their shirts, but we're still left with incredibly useful new technology.

But if we have a long (or infinite) way to go before hitting that inflection point, then the hype is justified.