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philcolast Thursday at 7:48 PM8 repliesview on HN

This feels like an insane proposition to me, I'll explain:

1. Soaring egg prices are due to culling + deaths related to the proliferation of H5N1 (Avian Flu).

2. The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.

3. The reason we want to minimize exposure between chickens and humans is because each exposure of an infected chicken to a human is an opportunity for the virus to jump host, and adapt to better transmit amongst humans. The mutation (mammalian adaptation of the virus) can happen in the chicken before it jumps to a passing by human, or in the human once infected with the virus.

We are only a few minor adaptations away from this thing being BOTH extremely deadly AND extremely transmissible between humans. Worst case scenario. The latest strands found in Canada and now Nevada are extremely deadly, and just need the Human to Human adaptation. With enough at bats, it will have it.

The idea of dramatically increasing the number of humans exposed to sick flocks by having people start their own backyard chicken coops feels suicidal, for humanity.

The latest hospitalized patient in Georgia was exposed through a backyard flock, by the way.


Replies

js2last Thursday at 8:39 PM

20 years ago, Thailand almost overnight got rid of backyard chicken farms:

> Perhaps the biggest and most lasting change, Auewarakul says, is that this outbreak abruptly accelerated the transition from backyard chicken farmers to large-scale industrialized poultry farms. He says this was a big cultural transition since chickens had been part of everyday life for many Thai families. [...]

> The shift to these industrialized farms has not fully eliminated avian flu in chickens, but the disease has been largely contained. With ongoing monitoring, cases are often identified early and dealt with before the virus can gain a foothold.

https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/06/12/g-s1-...

VincentEvanslast Thursday at 10:11 PM

Throughout entire human and chicken collective history we somehow haven’t managed to get wiped out by chicken transmitted decease - and suddenly its practically imminent and only massive mega farms can keeps us safe.

A thought occurs - perhaps it’s the mega farming that is the root of this problem and having some backyard chickens won’t really move the needle any closer to doom?

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bagelslast Thursday at 7:54 PM

The biosecurity protocols are nonexistent with most backyard coops.

notfedlast Thursday at 8:37 PM

Let's say I have a few chickens in my backyard that don't have bird flu, and we (myself or my chickens) never come into contact with any other chickens.

Aren't we safe? If not, what are the possible vectors? Is it from random birds flying in my yard? My visits to grocery stores?

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freddie_mercurylast Thursday at 9:00 PM

> The reason we have been proactively culling is to minimize spread AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, to minimize the number of exposures H5N1 could have to Humans.

The reason the US has been culling is because they refuse to vaccinate chickens. Even China began vaccinations in 2004 ... over 2 decades ago.

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adolphlast Thursday at 8:50 PM

> With enough at bats, it will have it.

viral pun

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dyauspitrlast Thursday at 7:56 PM

We have a backyard flock where the run and coop are completely enclosed. So in theory they should be more protected given that no birds or critters can get into that space to give my chickens bird flu.

That being said, I have no faith in the Trump government to do the right things required to stop the spread of this and I feel like we are pretty screwed either ways.

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redeemanlast Thursday at 10:06 PM

yeah... people keeping chickens would be humanity committing suicide.. seems legit :) the last few thousand years of prior art might beg to differ

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