alt Hacker NewsThe reason for my "optimism" is that it's just as easy for him to undo this as doing it in the first place. If he keeps them in place as constructed for more than say, 3 months, without shooting them through with loopholes, then he might have a real unfixable problem on his hands, as businesses start to seriously reorient themselves. However, if over the next 3 months or so, he starts tactically peeling them back or being very "generous" with exemptions, the net economic impact could be relatively small, and maybe even moderately positive (depending on the details).
Fwiw I'd prefer the republicans win again, so my optimism is actual (not that I don't have substantial criticisms of the current admin's policies). However, it is refreshing to have a content-focused exchange on the internet about politics, so h/t to you :)
What I don't understand with your argument is, how do you account for the loss of trust of your trading partners? Even if the WH responds and tweaks the tariffs there is no hiding the fact that they have damaged trust in the US as a trading partner. I mean just look at what is happening in most western countries already, there a serious reorienting away from partnership with the US. Also consider that the US is primarily a service export economy and that it's generally much easier to divest from services than manufactured goods, I suspect the moves will have caused serious and long lasting damage to US companies.