> it feels like a good opportunity for China to increase their trade/influence in the region as well
influence for sure. But trade? Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia already have ~40% of their imports from China and 5% or so from the US, I don't think this tariff can realistically increase trade between China and SEA countries much.
Would it reduce the share of exports that US sells? If they decide to buy directly from China over the US given the higher price of everything in the US (keep in mind the raw components dont all appear out of nowhere).
I checked these numbers for Thailand: China: 24%, US: 6.73%
For Vietnam: China: 32.79%, US: 4.04%
What about the inverse though; Vietnam/Thailand/Cambodia increasing their exports to China?