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throwaway2037 • 04/03/2025 • 3 replies • view on HN

That is correct. It was empircally proven here: https://www.ft.com/content/c4f9c7f6-0753-4458-840e-bcde1b74a...

To quote Alex Scaggs of FT:

    Take the US’s goods trade deficit with any particular country, and divide it by the total amount of goods imported from that country. Cut that percentage in half, and there’s the US’s “reciprocal” tariff rate.
All countries tested against this theory are correct within 1-2 percent.

Replies

floydnoel • 04/03/2025

you can just read the methodology where they published it here: https://ustr.gov/issue-areas/reciprocal-tariff-calculations

jimmySixDOF • 04/03/2025

Now somebody factor in Services and rerun the numbers.

credit_guy • 04/03/2025

This is interesting. I don't know the details of Trump's tariff policy, but if this is correct, it would follow that the policy should have some mechanism to reduce the tariffs as the trade imbalance is reduced.

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