alt Hacker NewsThe tariffs aren't set at like 10,000%.
"Domestic production will replace imports" is conditioned on the cost of domestic production being lower than the cost of imports with the tariffs added. "Just spin up new factories with capital investment, raise wages substantially to get people to change careers from service industries, and train all these new people" isn't going to be a cheaper approach to building furniture than continuing to import it from Vietnam with a high tariff.
The effect will be minimal new domestic manufacturing and higher prices for large numbers of goods.
I think you fail to account for just how little a salary needs to be increased for it to be interesting to switch jobs for the people who are making the lowest wages. In Europe, people compare wages with single digit differences per hour when deciding for switches in jobs and careers.
And low paid workers in the service sector aren't low skilled and costly to get going. They're intelligent and honest, and would be fine workers in manufacturing if given the opportunity. They're working in the service sector because those jobs couldn't be off-shored.