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markus_zhangyesterday at 12:11 PM1 replyview on HN

This doesn't come as a surprise as we all know it's going to come.

My question is, how does the US prepare to re-industrialize itself? Is the tariff good enough to provide incentives so that factories start to appear domestically? I fear this might not be the case.


Replies

bluGillyesterday at 2:15 PM

The US never lost manufacturing. It just automated it. Those people who know how to run a factory still exist.

However there is no getting around it taking years to setup a factory (less if you can import the assembly line back from China). So nobody sane will start a new one in the next year based on these tariffs - odds are too high that in 2 years the democrats take over congress (the house not flipping would be a shock: typically the out of power party gains a few seats in non-presidential elections and only a few seats need to flip. The senate is somewhat unlikely, but the loss of the house would have ripple effects there).

Even ignoring the above, any few factory would be highly automated. There won't be thousands of new no college required jobs created in any new factory. It will be maybe 100 (probably less), with a bunch more engineering degree required.