If the tariffs remained in effect for three decades, or more, there may have been incentive to move manufacturing back to the US; however, with the changing of the guard on the regular, most companies are just going to ignore it for 3.5 more years and hope that someone stops this from continuing.

Because, if you think about it, it took decades to get us to where we are today and it'll take decades to reverse, even logistically. This is a bunch of stupidity and meaningless saber rattling that will do nothing but hurt everyone except the extremely wealthy who can afford the additional taxation on the consumer side because the Republicans will further reduce the taxation on the income side.

Somewhat yes. But more precisely it is a reallocation from things we have the best comparative advantage to things where we have less comparative advantage. The main effect is to make almost everyone poorer.

> How much all the imports are realistically going to be made in the US?

For some of the hardest hit locations, very little. The US would have to invade and claim other countries to start producing, for instance, vanilla or coffee (the US essentially doesn't produce vanilla, and for coffee we grow less than a percent of what we consume). But Madagascar got hit with 47% tariffs.

Even at this tariff rate, it's unlikely US manufacturing will compete on price with china, etc. So likely won't help US business, and will crush lower/middle class people. This is true, imo, even after whatever long ramp up period companies need to start manufacturing here.

Yes it is regressive taxation. It can't be judged in isolation without considering how that revenue will be spent. If that revenue went into massive public works and social programs the stimulus could increase consumer spending which in combinations with tariffs might possibly benefit US business and jobs (gut feeling, not an economist) though perhaps the overall economy might still suffer. Clearly that isn't the plan though.

If it funds tax cuts for the extremely wealthy then potentially its going to be a colossal shit show.

Meanwhile countries are raising barriers against US exports and those losses will need to be made up with increased domestic demand. It is a very brave experiment.

Look, this is basic economic theory. The kinds of taxes you levy alter primary behavior. You tax the things you don’t want and don’t tax the things you want. So looking at incidence of taxation (who pays the tax) isn’t enough. You need to look at how taxes alter economic incentives.

It is to be seen. Capitalists are the closest thing we have to rational economic agents. If there is a buck to be made in American manufacturing then that buck will be made.

My layman concern though is that these tariffs are not going to be stable enough to convince daddy warbucks to build a $10m factory.