Most code optimizations end up looking somewhat asymptotic towards a non-zero minimum.
If it takes you a week to find a 1% speedup, and the next 0.7% speedup takes you 2 weeks to find ... well, by using the 1% speedup the next one only takes you 13.86 days. This kind of small optimization doesn't lead to exponential gains.
That doesn't mean it's not worthwhile - it's great to save power & money and reduce iteration time by a small amount. And it combines with other optimizations over time. But this is in no way an example of the kind of thing that the singularity folks envisioned, regardless of the realism of their vision or not.
Exactly - the possible improvements may compound, but they converge logarithmically towards an upper limit absent new insight that establishes a new upper limit.