With "AI can code", though, we can get pretty far by working around the problem. Use it to augment the workflow of a real SWE and supply it with guardrails like linters, tests, etc. It doesn't do the hard bits like architecture, design and review, but it can take huge amounts of the repetitive "solved" bits that dominate most SWEs time. Very possible to 2-5x productivity without quality loss (because the human does all work to guarantee quality).

But yes, unmanaged and unchecked it absolutely cannot to the full job of really any human. It's not close.