Yes, obviously that 1% figure is a simplification. Of course not all motors are created equal, and neither are all operating conditions!
But the neat thing about my argument is it holds true regardless of the underlying failure rate!
So long as your per-motor annual failure rate is >0, 43x it will be bigger than 3x it.
your calculation is true, but the absolute number is needed here.
43x of 1% failure rate is tragic, but 43x of 0.1% is acceptable in my book.
Uuids have failure possibilities, yet they are used very successfully. It is all about the failure rate.