From experience I think your 10% feels overly pessimistic. 30-40% feels more accurate, just like only about the same % that can survive an open plan or cubicle floor.
I see lots of people thriving in remote. Main reasons being a huge increase in quality of life. Regaining 2-3 hours of senseless commuting time per day, getting small household chores done over lunch, not having to schedule repair and maintainance appointments in the weekends etc. is huge.
Now I do agree it is not for everyone. I see especially younger people living alone not coping to well. Part of the reason is they (ab)used the office as a socializing place, and are not used to organizing a personal social life outside work. There's also people that don't actually have much work outside of attending office meetings, and nobody thrives sitting in Teams calls all day.
Then there's also real downsides. Some people living in shoebox appartments in the city just do not have the space. W While work can be done (more?) efficiently remote, but carreer climbing needs in person contact. It's like dating. Real dinner or a video call? No comparison.
Best of both worlds would be 0 commute time to a luxurious private office inside the company premises. All the rest will be tradeoffs and compromises either way.
So the problem with this reply is you talk about thriving and then list personal benefits. Those are not thriving in the workplace that companies are looking for.
I can’t disclose details but I’ve been doing mentoring, screening and interviewing + screening for years and saw remote communities grow from 10s to 1000s.
What you’re saying is true especially in the honeymoon phase, but the running joke is that you don’t really live remote life unless solitude made you name a pigeon. I’ve seen careers of many of my peers and usually 5 years in people starts to seek on-site.
There’s another point to take into consideration though. In Europe commute is usually less than hour and for many morning routine is an opening to watch movies/read books/listen to music or podcasts. Some travel with friends so that’s a social occasion too. Given accounts of my US colleagues where it’s usually lone drive back and forth experience is different.
Yet remote means omitting or social events and being outsider in the most-social environment (especially for men). Even hybrid with one day is much better than completely remote.
What I found over the years is that no one can say what differentiates remote-able to non-remote. Quiet back-seat engineer can get depressed after year of remote and that guy who is always heart of the party can thrive in remote. It’s just… it wears people down quickly and problems are usually creeping. Back pains coming from tension. Working hours slowly inflating to compensate for extra 10 minutes spent on lunch, this one time when you are bored at 8pm because you are bored in front of computer so why not help someone.
Maybe I’m biased but I find situation that some people are remote and some aren’t to be a healthy one. This preserves local jobs while also making an opening for those who want to do remote work for any reason whatsoever. And this honeymoon period is good to check out if you’re fit for remote or not (and gives enough churn to provide opportunity to try).