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int_19hyesterday at 5:45 AM1 replyview on HN

I don't think this tells us much. The present distribution of supporters is rather unique in how strongly it correlates with population density, which means that Dems are going to have a major structural handicap in Senate. I don't think there was ever anything similar historically. And it won't change unless and until the coalitions change, which, sure, will happen eventually - but then it'll be a completely different party under the same brand, so why would Republicans today care about that new party's difficulties?


Replies

ethbr1yesterday at 10:43 AM

It seems full of hubris to look back at history and say 'This time will be different.'

Maybe you're right, but people always say that. And they've always been wrong.

As one plausible mechanism: the economy stalls / inflation accelerates and people blame the party in power.