Maybe a better question is when will SOTA models be "good enough"?

At the moment there appears to be ~no demand for older models, even models that people praised just a few months ago. I suspect until AGI/ASI is reached or progress plateaus, that will continue be the case.

For some use-cases, like making big complex changes to big complex important code or doing important research, you're pretty much always going to prefer the best model rather than leave intelligence on the table.

For other use-cases, like translations or basic queries, there's a "good enough".