You made your edit before I posted.
But, yeah, it's not that, back in the day, I didn't post a ton of application resumes and form cover letters to HR departments out of school--and even got non-form responses from a number (and an offer from one sight unseen though I ended up going with someone else even after insisting on an in-person visit). But my sense is that, as you say, there's more of an arms race as you put it going on today where--if you don't have some way of cutting trough the noise, such as through your network, it's a tough slog. Which is one reason the anecdotal evidence at least suggests it's tougher for people who have't developed a network yet.
I meet a few college CS candidates, and I really empathize with what they’re facing now.
I feel like the industry is far tougher to get into now than when I joined.
I sent out maybe 10 applications, got a few interviews, and 1 offer.
I hear of kids now sending out dozens to hundreds of applications with few bites.
Makes me sad for the stress they must feel.