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nathan_comptonlast Sunday at 10:39 PM1 replyview on HN

How could you possibly come up with 10-15%?


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ben_wlast Sunday at 10:45 PM

Eyeballing a sigmoid curve for TRL development times: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_readiness_level

There's several things that it depends on which are TRL 1-3, but are known to be at least theoretically possible. Based on how long it takes to get other things from TRL 1 to working device, I think it's most likely to take longer than my current remaining life expectancy even to be even odds, but not by such a large margin as to be infinitesimal odds.

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