> The moat of the frontier folks is just compute.
This is not really true. Google has all the compute but in many dimensions they lag behind GPT-5 class (catching up, but it has not been a given).
Amazon itself did try to train a model (so did Meta) and had limited success.
Which dimensions do you see Google lagging on? They seem broadly comparable on the usual leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard) and anecdotally I can't tell the difference in quality.
I tend personally to stick with ChatGPT most of the time, but only because I prefer the "tone" of the thing somehow. If you forced me to move to Gemini tomorrow I wouldn't be particularly upset.
" in many dimensions they lag behind GPT-5 class " - such as?
Outside of computer, "the moat" is also data to train on. That's an even wider moat. Now, google has all the data. Data no one else has or ever will have. If anything, I'd expect them to outclass everyone by a fat margin. I think we're seeing that on video however.
> This is not really true. Google has all the compute but in many dimensions they lag behind GPT-5 class (catching up, but it has not been a given).
I don't know what you are talking about. I use Gemini on a daily basis and I honestly can't tell a difference.
We are at a point where training corpus and hallucinations makes more of a difference than "model class".
Yes, or Apple who with all the talent don’t manage to pull off anything useful in AI
xAI seems to be the exception, not the rule
Depending on how you look at it I suppose but I believe Gemini surpasses OpenAI on many levels now. Better photo and video models. The leaderboard for text and embeddings are also putting Google on top of Openai.
gemini-2.5-pro is ranked number 1 in llmarena (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard) before gpt-5-high. In the Text-to-Video and Image-to-video, google also have the highest places, OpenAI is nowhere.
It doesn’t guarantee success, but the point stands about X and Deepseek
I switched to Gemini with my new phone and I literally couldn't tell a difference. It is actually crazy how small the cost of switching is for LLMs. It feels like AI is more like a commodity than a service.